Advanced Strategic Decision and Risk Analysis Course (4-days Computer)
Real Consulting offers a series of courses that designed to help your business to analyse and quantify risks faced by your company and how to incorporate risk management strategies for success. Our courses are presented in joint partnership between Real Consulting and Real Options Valuation, Inc., a US-based company.
|Advanced Strategic Decision and Risk Analysis Course
Time: 9:00am -5:00pm,
Date: 19 -22 Sept 2006
Venue: 6/F Lincoln House, Taikoo Place, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong
Summary of Course
Real Options has become a key management tool for many of today's businesses. It is accurate method of estimating the value of corporate investments, and it can be effectively utilised in situations where management has flexibility in large capital budget decisions with high uncertainties.
Traditional valuation methods are incapable of incorporating future risks and management flexibilities into the analysis. As a result, optimal decisions are often disregarded because of flawed decision analysis. In other words, every time you made a capital budget decision, you could be leaving money on the table.
This is a 4-day hands-on computer-based course combining the Risk Analysis Seminar and the Real Options for Analysts Course. The course will cover the topics of the Integrated Risk Management Process from risk analysis, quantification to structuring real options strategies and performing the analysis.
Our classes are generally kept to a small size to cultivate a better learning atmosphere and to provide the opportunity for more one-on-one attention by the instructors. Courses are conducted around the world in state-of-the-art computer-equipped seminar rooms, where each participant will have his or her own computer terminal.
The course will make use of the Risk Simulator and the Real Options SLS software. Because our advanced software technology is performing all of the technical calculations, our unique approach enables you to focus on asking the right questions, structuring the problem and doing the business analysis.
This course covers the following topics:
- Risk Analysis and Quantification
- Monte Carlo simulation (simulation, nonparametric bootstrap simulation, correlated simulation, truncation, distributional fitting, applied statistics to interpret simulation results, hypothesis testing, data extraction and analysis, multidimensional simulation, pitfalls, and performing due diligence)
- Forecasting (time-series forecasting, multivariate regression, nonlinear extrapolation, stochastic process forecasting, Box-Jenkins ARIMA, and forecasting without data)
- Optimisation (linear optimisation on continuous and discrete integer decision optimisation, portfolio optimisation, and decision analysis techniques)
- Real Options Analysis
- Introduction to real options: what, where, who, when, how, and why
- Basic Real Options (sample business cases and examples of real options applications, understanding the basics of real options)
- Overview of different options valuation techniques: closed-form models, partial differential equations, and binomial lattices
- Applying the risk-neutral probability technique, European, American and Bermudan options, as well as abandonment, expansion, contraction, chooser options, and 4 different estimating volatility methods
- Overview of the different SLS modules and computing volatility
- Solving options with changing inputs and customised exotic options, complex multiphased sequential compound options, mean-reverting options, jump- diffusion options, and dual-asset rainbow options using trinomial, quadranomial, and pentanomial lattices
- Framing real options - structuring the problem
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"Real options provide a powerful way of thinking and I can't think of any analytical framework that has been of more use to me in the past 15 years that I've been in this business."
- Bloomberg Wealth Manager (November 2001)